Service Plays Friday 9/17/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RAS

1 UNIT* CFB* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Southern Miss), -4
1 UNIT* CFB* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Southern Miss), Over 49

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prediction machine Fri.

California Golden Bears -3 58.2%

Kansas Jayhawks +5.5 57.8%

California @ Nevada 63.5 Over 59.1%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (9/15)
Game 103-104: Kansas at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 80.215; Southern Mississippi 87.221
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 5 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-5 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: California at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 103.137; Nevada 95.619
Dunkel Line: California by 7 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: California by 2 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: California (-2 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL DUNKEL

Calgary at Saskatchewan
The Stampeders look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games in September. Calgary is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

Game 281-282: Calgary at Saskatchewan (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 119.915; Saskatchewan 115.899
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4; 59
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
POD

TB (-140) over LAA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards

Bettors have a pair of televised games to wager on Friday night, as a pair of quality “mid-major” programs get rare chances to host BCS schools. The action starts in Hattiesburg, where Southern Miss will play host to Kansas. The Jayhawks will be looking to avoid a letdown following their upset win over Ga. Tech.

Later in the evening, Nevada will take on California from out of the Pac-10 in Reno. Let’s take a look at both of these games and more.

**Kansas at Southern Miss**

As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had So. Miss (1-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take Turner Gill’s team to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Larry Fedora’s team is coming off a 34-7 win over Prairie View A&M in a non-lined affair. The Golden Eagles jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime and cruised from there, resting most of their starters for much of the second half. Austin Davis threw for 178 yards and one touchdown to star receiver DeAndre Brown, who had five receptions for 100 yards.

So. Miss got off to an inauspicious start in Week 1, dropping a 41-13 decision at South Carolina as a 13-point underdog. With the Gamecocks playing without four of their best players due to suspensions, some had suggested that So. Miss might have a chance to pull the outright upset. However, that notion never even came close to materializing.

So. Miss has only been a home underdog once during Fedora’s three-year tenure. In that spot, the Golden Eagles failed to cover the number in a 24-7 loss to Boise St. as 11-point ‘dogs in 2008.

Kansas (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) might have been the nation’s biggest goat in Week 1, losing at home to North Dakota St. by a 6-3 score in Gill’s debut. However, the Jayhawks responded last week by beating Ga. Tech 28-25 as 14-point home underdogs. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan Webb was given the starting nod against the Yellow Jackets and he answered the call with authority. Webb threw three touchdown passes, while true freshman RB James Sims ran for 101 yards on 17 carries. As the Jackets were threatening to get into field-goal range for a potential tying score in the final minute, KU stopped Ga. Tech on downs thanks to a false-start penalty on fourth and three that preceded a Josh Nesbitt incompletion.

The 53 combined points in KU’s win over Ga. Tech slipped ‘over’ the 51-point total. The ‘over’ was also a winner for So. Miss in Week 1, as the 54 combined points eclipsed the 46-point tally.

When these schools met in Lawrence last year, KU captured a 35-28 victory as a 13-point ‘chalk.’ So. Miss rallied from a 28-14 deficit to tie the game in the final stanza, but the Jayhawks got the game-winning score on a short drive after a 50-yard kickoff return.

In the last five years, So. Miss has only hosted a BCS opponent twice. The Golden Eagles got past Virginia 37-34 last year, but the Cavs easily took the money as 14-point road underdogs. In ’06, they spanked N.C. St. 37-17 as three-point home favorites.

ESPN will have television coverage Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.


**California at Nevada**

As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing California (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a three-point road favorite with a total of 65 ½. Bettors can back the home underdog on the money line for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125).

Nevada (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has lost seven straight games against BCS teams by an average margin of 22 points per game. Since 2005, the Wolf Pack is winless both SU and ATS in three home games versus BCS competition. They lost 55-21 to Washington St. as nine-point home ‘dogs in 2005. In ’08, Texas Tech emerged from Reno with a 35-19 win as a 10-point road ‘chalk,’ and Missouri captured a 31-21 victory as a 7 ½-point road favorite last year.

UN is led by senior quarterback Colin Kaeparnick, who accounted for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 51-6 demolition of Colorado St. The Wolf Pack easily brought home the cash even though it was laying 24 ½ points. Kaepernick completed 21-of-29 throws for 241 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed 161 yards and two scores on only 11 carries.

Nevada racked up 631 total yards against the Rams. Senior RB Vai Taua rushed 15 times for 118 yards and one TD. He had a pair of TD runs in a season-opening home win over Eastern Washington by a 49-24 count.

Jeff Tedford’s squad has beaten up on a couple of soft foes the first two weeks. Cal opened up with a 52-3 dismantling of UC Davis. Next, the Bears pounded Colorado and its lame-duck coach Dan Hawkins, 52-7.

Cal scored the first 31 points against CU and cruised to an easy victory. Senior QB Kevin Riley threw for 197 yards and four touchdowns. He has yet to be intercepted this year compared to seven TD passes. The Bears got a pair of TDs from their defense and intercepted the Buffs’ Tyler Hansen three times.

Since 2004 when Chris Ault began his second head-coaching stint at UN, his team has compiled a 4-6 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog.

Cal owns an 11-15 spread record in 26 games as a road favorite during Tedford’s nine-year tenure.

When I talked to BoDog’s Richard Gardner on Wednesday afternoon, he said California minus three was one of the BoDog players’ most popular selections for Week 3.

Kick-off is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Kaepernick’s career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 65/16. He has 43 career rushing TDs.

FSU has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games as a double-digit favorite. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had the ‘Noles as 10-point home favorites vs. BYU. Gardner told VI, “We opened FSU at nine but almost all of the action that’s come in has been on the Seminoles.” BoDog had adjusted to 10 by Wednesday.

We mentioned the heavy action on Cal at BoDog. Gardner added that Nebraska minus 3 ½ was the most one-sided action the book had taken for Saturday games. In fact, as of late Wednesday afternoon, most books still had the Cornhuskers favored by three at Washington. However, Gardner told me at 2:00 p.m. Eastern that BoDog had just adjusted the number from 3 ½ to four.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe got burned when he backed FSU last week, but he won’t be making that mistake again Saturday. “My opinion of FSU has gone down significantly, especially after their poor defensive effort against Oklahoma,” Iskoe said. “I wasn’t impressed with BYU last week, either, but this is a huge revenge game for the Cougars. If the line continues to climb, I might get more interested in a BYU play.”

Most books are listing Florida as a 14-point road favorite for its SEC opener Saturday at Tennessee. The Gators are 8-10 ATS as road favorites on Urban Meyer’s watch. They are 4-5 ATS as double-digit road ‘chalk’ since Meyer took over for Ron Zook.

--Since 2000, Tennessee is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know

Kansas at Southern Mississippi (-5.5 49.5)

WHY KANSAS WILL COVER

The Jayhawks’ season was written off by most after they lost 6-3 to North Dakota State in their season opener. But in Week 2, head coach Turner Gill made some adjustments and engineered a 28-25 upset over a ranked Georgia Tech team.

Gill made two key changes in that game: he gave the starting quarterback job to red shirt freshman Jordan Webb and the feature running back spot to James Sims, a true freshman.

Kansas carries the momentum into Friday and aims to establish an attack similar to what South Carolina employed against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles struggled against the run in that game giving up 224 yards on 35 carries in a 41-13 loss.

The Jayhawks were not the same team that lost to North Dakota State and Southern Miss is a bit of a talent downgrade compared to Georgia Tech. And don’t forget the Jayhawks’ offensive coordinator, Darrell Wyatt, held the same position previously at Southern Miss.

WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL COVER

Last year as +11.5 point underdogs in Lawrence, the Golden Eagles came back from a 21-7 deficit and nearly upset Kansas. The revenge factor gets a boost this year with ESPN cameras and home field advantage.

QB Austin Davis threw for 331 yards and 3 TDs in last year’s tilt and he leads a fast-paced offense that looks to exploit Kansas’s defensive depth problems. Against Georgia Tech, the Jayhawks D focused mainly on containing the option and they still gave up 407 yards of total offense.

NOTES AND TRENDS

People don’t seem to be sold on Kansas with the line opening up at -4 in favor of Southern Miss, which has now seen movement up to -5.5. The Jayhawks are decent against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games covering the spread six times in their last seven. Southern Miss is 0-2 ATS so far this year and both of their games have gone over the total.

A low of 69 degrees is expected by kickoff with a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

California at Nevada (+2.5, 65.5)


WHY CAL WILL COVER

The Golden Bears have the historical edge in this series going 22-1-1 against the Wolf Pack and they’ve also completely dominated their opponents in 2010, outscoring Colorado and UC Davis 104-10. QB Kevin Riley is a huge part of that offensive explosion and he already has seven TD passes this season.

Nevada runs a high-powered offense and has scored 100 points in two games. Their pistol attack leads the nation in total yards at 592 per game.

The Cal’s stopper unit should have the personnel to handle their attack. The Golden Bears produced five turnovers and six sacks in their last game against Colorado and they have been particularly good against the run allowing only 44.5 yards per game.

WHY NEVADA WILL COVER

This is the last chance for the Nevada seniors to prove that Boise isn’t the only the quality team in the WAC. Other than their November encounter with the Broncos, the Cal game is the most important one on the schedule. The group has gradually improved over the last three years.

Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick has been under the radar despite all his talents. The senior is one of the most exciting offensive players in the NCAA as he demonstrated against Colorado State (241 passing yards, 161 rushing yards, four combined TDs). A big performance on national TV against a BCS team would increase his profile.

NOTES AND TRENDS

The line sits at -3 in favor of the visiting Cal Bears and can be found for -2.5 at some books. The Wolf Pack have only covered once in the last four games when listed as underdogs in non-conference games. Nevada is also just 2-18 straight up against BCS schools since 2004.

The total opened at 62 and has moved all the way up to 66 with most expecting an offensive shootout.

The low temperature is expected to touch 52 degrees by kickoff. Expect a decent sized Golden Bear contingent in the stands because of Reno’s close proximity to Northern California.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (11-11, 4.53 ERA)

The hard-throwing South Paw has entrenched himself as the Brew Crew’s No. 2 start by becoming one of the more reliable pitchers in the National League.

He won’t go eight innings and he won’t strike out 14 batters, but he won’t implode and put his side in a huge hole before the squad even makes its way through the order. Since Aug. 1 – a span of eight starts – Wolf has a 3.14 ERA and a 35:17 strike-to-walkout ratio.

In his past two outings, Wolf has gone 14.2 innings and yielded just three earned runs, including picking up a victory against the two-time defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (11-11, 2.39 ERA)

The 24-year-old right-handed fireballer continues to quietly put together one of the strongest seasons of any pitcher in the Majors.

Hernandez allowed four earned runs over 6.1 innings in his most recent outing against the Angels, but his defense did him no favors by committing three errors. Prior to that, he hadn’t allowed an earned run over his previous 33.1 innings. Over his past seven starts, he has given up only five earned runs in 51.1 innings.

Hernandez leads the American League in ERA and innings pitched (225.2) and is second in strikeouts (214).

"I mean, for him to put up as many zeros as he has, his [won-lost] record shouldn't reflect [badly on] what he's done," Mariners second baseman Chone Figgins told the Associated Press. "The Cy Young is basically for the best pitcher. But if he doesn't get runs, that's not his fault. If his other numbers are up there than he deserves it and he should get it. But if I know him, he's going to continue to go out there and pitch to win."

Slumping

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (12-7, 4.12 ERA)

The young left-hander is a building block for the team’s foundation for the future, but he may have show a crack in his most recent outing.

Cecil last only two innings of a 9-8 loss to Tampa Bay. He allowed seven earned runs on eight hits, including a home run and just three strikeouts against two walks. Overall in his past six outings, he has allowed at least five hits each time and fewer than seven only once.

Between Triple-A Las Vegas and Toronto this season, Cecil has thrown 166 innings, already nearly 30 more than last year.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (3-7, 6.85 ERA)

The right-hander has yet to notch a quality start since coming off the disabled list on August 15. Even worse, he hasn’t lasted six innings since a 6-2 win over
Washington on May 17.

The past three times he has toed the rubber he has allowed 14 earned runs over just 15.1 innings, including 27 hits and three walks. Overall, the team is 2-3 in his past five starts and has won just four of his past 10 outings this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Friday's Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+142, 9.5)

It’s hard to find a hotter team in the Majors than the Orioles.

Baltimore is an American League East-best 8-2 in its past 10 games and has managed to split its past six against the Bronx Bombers. The key to the team’s success? Well, when you were worse than the Pirates for most of the season, there’s a lot of room for improvement.

The past seven days the team has been batting a sparkling .310 to go with a sterling .377 on-base percentage and scoring a respectable 31 runs. The team has a lack of power – only four home runs and 10 doubles over that stretch – but consistently gets on base and puts pressure on opposing pitchers.

Orioles pitching also has been doing its part the past week, posting a spectacular 2.95 ERA and allowing opponents to hit a meager .221 over that span.

Believe in Baltimore.

Pick: Baltimore Orioles


Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (+102, 7)

Reds hitters heard that left-hander Wandy Rodriguez was starting for Houston on Friday. And they aren’t intimidated.

Cincinnati bats have absolutely raked against left-handed hitters this year. The Reds have hit for power, smacking a staggering 55 home runs off South Paws this season, along with 75 doubles and seven triples. The team also can hit for average, batting .267 against lefties with a fantastic .346 on-base percentage.

Rodriguez has had some success against the Reds this season, but overall Cincinnati has won seven of nine meetings with their division rivals, averaging better than 6.2 runs per game. Conversely, the Astros are scoring just 2.9 runs per game against the Reds.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Friday's Wagering Tips

Weather To Watch

Cubs at Marlins: There is a 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms with a 14 mph wind blowing in from center field.

Who’s Hot

The Phillies are 12-3 in their past 15.

The over is 14-6 in the Marlins past 20 home games.

The over is 7-1 in the Cardinals past 8 games.

Who’s Not

The Rangers are 1-9 in their past 10 games as an underdog.

The under is 14-6 in the Twins past 20 road games.

The under is 24-6 in the Astros past 30 games.

Key Stat

1,198: Days on Sunday it will be since Michael Vick was last a starting quarterback in the NFL. Vick hasn’t started a game since he was with the Falcons on Dec. 31 of 2006. Vick, who served an 18-month prison sentence in-between, was fantastic in relief of Kevin Kolb last week, completing 16-of-24 passes for 175 yards with a touchdown and rushing for 103 more. "I still feel like I can play at a high level," Vick told ESPN.com. "I feel like if I had been out there for four quarters, maybe we would have had a chance to win the game. I feel like I'm like 25 or 26 again, even though that's not the case."

Injury That Shouldn't Be Overlooked

Cleveland Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme missed practice for the second straight day with ankle injury. Now, normally any injury that sidelines the Rajun’ Cajun is celebrated by his fan base. But with Seneca Wallace and an untested Colt McCoy waiting in the wings, does the team really want to have a fresh face under center with the rejuvenated Chiefs coming to town? Right now, coach Eric Mangini isn’t showing any cards, but has spoken a lot to GM Mike Holmgren about Wallace. "I think Jake's made some progress. We have a couple different approaches how the game can go and we'll just have to see which way it goes. I can't give a specific answer," Mangini told the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Game Of The Day

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (+149, 7.5)

Notable Quotes

"He's always been a good guy as long as I've known him at USC and here in New Orleans. ... Hopefully [people will] finally leave him alone about it. It's five or six years ago. We need to let it go and move on." – Saints DT Sedrick Ellis on RB Reggie Bush, his former USC teammate, on giving back the Heisman Trophy.

Tips and notes

The Reds bullpen situation is getting very dicey. Closer Francisco Cordero is third in the National League with 36 saves, but has been very shaky during stretches this season -- blowing a whopping eight saves -- including botching a pair of chances this weekend against the Pirates. After a very close call in a 7-5 win and save over Arizona on Wednesday, talk of having rookie phenom Aroldis Chapman take over the closing reigns have even made manager Dusty Baker think twice. "There's a situation like [David] Price in Tampa Bay in the playoffs [in 2008]. If that comes up, we'll see," Baker told MLB.com. "In the meantime, let's not stir it up. There's already enough stirring up whenever [Cordero] comes into the game. That can't help when he comes in the game and gives up one ball or one hit, the boos start. That makes it worse.

Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald isn’t showing many flashes of regaining his All-Pro form. He did catch the game-winning touchdown on Sunday against St. Louis, but has been hampered by not only a bulky knee-brace, but also his inability to practice and get reps with new starting quarterback Derek Anderson. With running back Beanie Wells looking doubtful for the game, this could be a huge blow to the team’s offense if Fitzgerald is less than 100 percent. "You walk a fine line," Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt told the team’s Web site, "because you want Larry to be in game shape and the only way to do that is get reps in practice."

Middle Tennessee State will be without star quarterback Dwight Dasher for at least one more week. The NCAA ruled on Thursday that Dasher affected his eligibility when he accepted a $1,500 loan from an 80-year-old war veteran he befriended, and will likely miss two more games due to suspension. Last season, Dasher was the fourth player in Football Bowl Subdivision history to throw for more than 2,500 yards and run for more than a 1,000 in a single season as he was named Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year. The Blue Raiders are 1-1 his year and visit Memphis (+4) on Saturday.

 

[JMEYERS]

HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-September 17th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[908] Florida |8*|-110|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST

[911] San Diego |8*|-165|B+0|Network N/A|8:15 pm EST

[921] Toronto |8*|-160|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST

[924] CLE/KC |8*|OVER|8 Runs|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST

[928] Minnesota |8*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

WEEKEND FB TV WINNER
California/Nevada over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KEWANE/SHUE HANDICAPPING-Tom Kewane/Charlie Shue

3%* CFB* Mississippi State Bulldogs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS BETTING PROFESSOR

ORIGINAL PICK
Nevada Wolfpack +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

Rated 1-5

Nevada over Calf Rated 5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO

Rated a 10 out 11

Calf over Nevada 38-24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

Calgary Stampeders Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LENNY DEL GENIO

25* FRIDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR* CFB* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MATT FARGO

9* FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS* 71% ANGLE* CFB* California Golden Bears, -2.5